How do you feel?

[Scottw]

[I'm starting to wish I hadn't stopped smoking weed in 1984.[/quote]


It's never to late to start again!

[Da Klugs]

Got up this morning and walked the lil dog. Lights were still on everywhere around us. Neighbors were heading out to work. Came back in and watched the news a bit. Such positive input.. .

Drove to work. World seemed to still be rotating on it's axis, gravity is ok so the basics are still intact. Sun rose in the east as usual (hard to tell here in the winter due to cloud cover but there was a glow).

We seem to be getting much better deals on gas... saw $ 1.68 at the pump on the way by.

Noticed McDonalds is offering 2 egg Mcmuffins for $ 2. MMMM.

Sam came in and showed me that the bank is giving us a .61% on our money on deposit there. Last year it was 4.8%. Big change on a small part of our revenues. Banker just showed up to discuss, should be interesting.

Good time to have a job. Bad time to be living off of a short term interest based portfolio.

Noticed the market dropped again yesterday and for the first time in a while it's below 8000. We are getting to the levels where "the brave" can win in the long run. Now how to be brave is the challenge.

[macpappy]

I feel primarily with my hand. Very little levity but thought some was needed.

I'm one of those who always believe that "when one door closes, another opens" as it has happened many times in my life. I'm currently self-employed and make a comfortable living (for my lifestyle) by design grocery circulars for 5 different groups of stores. Last week I started getting concerned because one group had to close two stores that were forced out of business by Wal-Mart. This week I had two potential new, non-grocery clients contact me out of the blue. If I land just one of those account, I will have to consider hiring a freelance to take some of the load. So, one door closed but another one is opening.

I look at the current situations with the banking and auto industry as basically the same thing. Those doors are slowly closing. The smart people will find the doors that are opening and continue on.

[poker]

How do I feel?

I consider myself lucky in this day and age considering the high tech industry I am involved in.
In this day and age where many high tech corporations are shifting their manufacturing overseas due to lower operating costs, looming future layoffs, and uncertainty of the high tech industry overall, I'm lucky in the fact that 3 of my biggest clients are doing well and are actually looking at expanding operations. That, and the fact that my #1 client recently renewed my contract for another 5 years means I should be okay financially.

Gas has dropped from a high of $4.88/gal down to like $2.33/gal here in SoCal.
That helps a lot since I commute 63 miles each way to my clients Mon-Fri and have to fill up 18 gallons 3X a week of 91 octane.

Looking on TV the other night and on the internet today, I see there is a lot more places having some huge sales. 30%, 40%, 50%, and as high as 70% off at some places on certain items. Not bad considering how the holidays are just around the corner and its not even Black Friday yet.

I'm glad I started my own business when I did. Just heard yesterday through the grapevine that the company I used to be employed by, announced they will be laying off 22% of the workforce today and tomorrow.

All in all I have nothing to complain about, and I would be a fool to start.

[Flatsix]

Everytime I listen to the radio or watch the news I hear bad news. The government can't govern, the largest financial institutions and corporations failed or are failing, our money is being used to bail them out, Stock Market is down, lay offs, high prices, bad this, bad that, etc, etc.

Americans can seem to get through anything. We've had bad times before and we've sorted them out. In my lifetime, we've seen the late 60's assasinations, war, rioting in the streets, we got through that. Late 70's we had the attack on the Marines in Beirut, lost Americans in a rescue mission in desert, hostages in the Middle East, failed Presidency, lot's of and doom and gloom, we got through that. Early 90's economy sucked although not nearly as bad as today, we got through that. The 9/11 terrorist attack took out (2) World Trade Center towers and killed a lot of people, we got through that. I'm thinking that we'll get through this just fine.

Strap in It'll be a long and bumpy ride.

[gettysburgfreak]

I am really worried about all the crap thats going on. Im trying to start a career and graduated in one of the worst economic times in our countries history. I would much rather have a job and be worried about losing it than have no job and try and find one.


Ive always wanted to start a business but now a days thats not going to happen. I send out resume after resume with no response, each day I watch the news the message is not good. Eventually the sun has got to come out but as of right now I don't see it happening in the near future.

[SvilleKid]

Some probably call me a pessimistic, and say that my attitude only fuels the crisis. I say that I lived through the 1979-2001 recession, which was much worse than any since then. I was in the real estate appraisal business then, self employed, and had a handle on the economic issues. I recognized the coming recession a good 6 months before it was mentioned in the main stream press. With a pending marriage, and suspecting the probably extent of the coming recession, I took a position with the state's largest bank in 1980, with the responsibility of dealing with foreclosures and foreclosed properties.

Many of the same developer practices present then are present now. With the exception of negligible interest rates now, many of the same political and economic factors present the are present now. The historic low interest rates is actually a hindrance today, in that the FED loses lowering interest rates as a way to "warm" the market back up. Like it or not, the collapsed real estate market is at the heart of the current problems, and that collapse was evident (at least to me and others being realistic) as long as two years ago. At that time, I told my son and wife that we would be in a collapsed real estate market inside of two years, and that it would take at least two years to turn it around, and another 12 to 18 months to return to a positive real estate market that would support a growing economy.

We ARE in a recession. No heads hidden in the sand. Won't change the facts. I kinda stand by my predictions for 36 to 42 months to get back close to where we were a year ago. So, say Fall, 2010, but more probable Spring, 2011. Now, though, I'm wishy-washy. When the July and September NYSE numbers are removed from the rolling three month averages, we will see that the stock market has had MORE volitility than existed after the stock market crash that ushered in the Great Depression. ALL the REAL economic numbers point to BAD, BAD times, not to cheery times ahead. And, the people in charge, and thos that will be in charge are all pursuing potential policies that are no more than band aides on an open chest wound.

God, Dave, I wish I was wrong. Hope I am wrong. Pray about being wrong. I am not one that has stopped spending, but I also have gotten myself in as good of a financial position as possible in this market.

I won't starve, the house is paid for, and I can bring the family back home and tough things out if things turn really ugly. I hope they don't turn ugly, but I WILL NOT bet my future on the failure of others to realistically look at all factors, not just the ones they are feed by those with ulterior motives. To many basic economic indicators are wrong at this time. And, consumer confidence is a reactive (or following) indicator, not a leading, controlling indicator. While feeling good is always best from a mental health standpoint, it cannot lead an economy out of failure unless there are realistic changes to the good that the Consumer confidence Index can react to.

Pessimistic or realistic?? I don't know about others. I do know that currently, and looking to the next 18 months, i see nothing to be Optimistic about.

[MadAl]

I remember last summer when gas went over $4.00 a gallon, predictions were $5.00 was close behind and by this time of year $8.00 a gallon was possible. The speculators that drove up the price of gas hastened and possibly created this global financial disaster. Kind of a domino effect, people couldn't afford gas, stopped buying SUVs, cut back on other expenditures and so it began.

[macms]

Originally Posted by SvilleKid

Pessimistic or realistic?? I don't know about others. I do know that currently, and looking to the next 18 months, i see nothing to be Optimistic about.

Quoted for truth.

[Da Klugs]

I agree with Cliff from a Macro economic standpoint. (I'm and economist by training plus all those nights in the Holiday Inn express. )

My point in posting this thread had more to do with looking at things from personal perspectives. 94 out of 100 of us statistically have jobs today. How you say things has a big impact on the emotional reception. Sounds different than Unemployment went up by 12% to 6% this week. If things go as predicted this might bottom out in the 90-92 range before there is much improvement. We are probably headed into "the great depression of this century". But what does that mean in todays context as opposed to the 1930's? Unless we see 25-30% unemployment it's hardly the same. Not good news for many but not sleeping on the street with starving children. I see the current process as a massive redistribution of wealth with the homeowners and stockowners taking huge hits. Effective current income will actually go up for those with jobs due to recessionary pressure on all forms of prices and historic low interest rates. It's almost as if we are nationalizing wealth in the form of deficit spending to cover the sins of the past 10 years in the financial, housing and auto markets. If the rest of the mature industrialized world wasn't doing the same thing the value of the dollar would plummet. Since the world is now intertwined more economically than at any time in the past, we are in new territory.... the how you feel territory. Unwinding and deleveraging applies to more than just the financial institutions.

[Genetic Defect]

good to have a job bad that another 35+ coworkers don't

[TripleF]

The thing that annoys me the most is the loss of HOPE. All my life I've always had the sense that things could be changed or improved and right now I don't believe that is the case.

What's happening right now is affecting the world and that's a little bigger than the USA.

[Ratters]

My job as a teacher is pretty much recession proof. Even if the company I work for went under I could get another job in a week. But I fear for my friends. I know several who've been recently laid off and are having a dickens of a time getting work. But like all cycles this one will turn around. My greatest fear is that the next administration will add so many taxes and bans on the hobbies I enjoy, cigars, guns and motorcycles, that they will cease to be viable options on my meager salary. It's bad enough that California is about to hike taxes a ton as well as quadruple the car tax.

[Tenor CS]

I'm stressed because I teach high school music. If more budget cuts come through, I fear that arts might be on the chopping block. Not even teaching is a "stable" job anymore. I might have to teach reading or something else that I'm not certified in.

[BigBruce]

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

[Genetic Defect]

Originally Posted by BigBruce

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

the Army is to picky I would sign on in a heartbeat

[M1903A1]

Originally Posted by BigBruce

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

Tell her to check into what deferments are available from the holder of her note, and to work 'em every which way she can.

[Jason]

I feel frustrated and have for a long time. Hopefully working through these times we get some clarity, we all learn things and behaviors that will ripple through the generations to come, producing more honest and compassionate human beings. The world needs more honest compassionate loving human beings. Tough times tend to make more of em, so yay for tough times.

[Texan in Mexico]

Very interesting and thought provoking thread Mr. Klugman.

It is hard for to me add onto what others have said so I will stick with personal experiences.

I work in the tourism industry.

I went through 9/11 when the planes and ships simply stopped coming for a few months...

I have had the good fortune of living through some helacious storms in both the Eastern and Western Caribbean.

One in particular Wilma, was a Cat 5 that sat on top of Cozumel for over 40 hours. I was in Vallarta at another one of our projects and had left the gf and dogs back home and couldnt get back to them before it hit, worse than being there I tell you.

The storm wiped us clean - not a stick left of our facility and we scrambled to get things back up and running about a year later and we are still paying off the financing from that blow.

One of the reasons I come to this Forum is for hope. There are good people here that share some of the same basic tenets in life that I do and that care about their fellow human beings.

This gives me hope, with hope and a bit of faith things tend to work out.

So how do I feel?

There is a constant stress to make payments, make payroll, to pay taxes, continue to make payments and work on capital investments. I am not alone, I know, when I say this type of stress can lead you to an early grave if you are not careful.

In short I feel blessed and fortunate.

I feel blessed to share this Forum with you BOTL & SOTL and I am fortunate to be in love and have five dogs that I adore and vice versa.

If we can work out this automobile issue we should all be making the turn in the economy by mid-summer 09 by my calculations, of course alot depends on what our new President does.

I dont mean to act like an economist in Klug's thread but save what you can while you can - mid-Summer 09 is a still a ways off.

Thank you for listening to the ramblings of some guy smoking a Siglo III at his kitchen table in Cancun.

Respectfully,

Travis

[MikeyC]

I hate to sound merely like an echo, but like a lot of others I'm concerned. I've only been on this earth a little over three decades so this next statement doesn't mean too much but this is by far the worst economic crisis of my lifetime. I have faith that things will turn around eventually. My main concerns are . . .

1. How much longer until it turns around?
2. How BAD will things be when we find the bottom?