Lets talk about the Swine flu... - Page 2

macms · 04-25-2009, 06:24 PM

Copied this from another board. Interesting reading and requires some investigating (for me anyway) to understand the implications. Put on your tinfoil hat just in case.

----------------

In a discussion this morning with a cell biologist and medical doctor working at Johns Hopkins, my friend thought this 4-part flu combination is highly unusual and looks like it could be man-made. Especially because it has an avian strain. My doctor friend (he's Taiwanese) explained that in Asia, it's common for a avian-swine-human flu to happen naturally, but this virus first showed up in Mexico, where pigs and ducks are not usually raised together. Also, recombination of more than 2-different flu viruses is extremely rare. I'm just repeating what he said as an expert in the field. He says the CDC needs to explain if there is a possibility that we are under a bio-weapon attack.

From CDC via Wikipedia:  
Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe.   

For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).[22][23][24] Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[25]   

The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.[26]  

Here's more from AP via Seattle Post Intelligencer: The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.  

"We are very, very concerned," World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It's all hands on deck at the moment."  

Update: doctor friend also says that what is also unusual is that this type/combination virus is the based on the same strain as in the 1918 Spanish flu virus (H1N1) outbreak (extremely deadly, 25 million dead in 25 weeks; total dead 50-100 million dead; 2.5%-5% of the world population). This makes the virus extremely deadly. The likelihood that this combination with the most deadly strain would happen naturally is very, very low.  

From Reuters via Los Angeles Times:  http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...pr25,0,5114253 .story  

The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans. 

Not really, the creators may be betting that this highly deadly strain further mutates. According to my Doctor source from JHU, it is not necessary to do it in the lab, when nature gets hold of it the virus evolves on its own, it can become very deadly. According to, the natural mutation rate of Influenza virus is 1.5 *10^(-5) per nucleotide per infectious cycle (each individual replication within the cell). That means each of the millions of cells in one body that becomes infected will be mutated at a rate of 1.5 *10^(-5) (10^(-5) = 1.5/10,000)   

From the Journal of Virology:  http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/59/2/377  More from Reuters: (CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser) Besser said the CDC is being "very aggressive" said it was time for people in the United States to think about what to do if this does turn out to be a pandemic." 
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...53O0MW20090425  More info also from Wikipedia, but certified by my doctor (JHU) friend:   

"H1N1 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus. H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds.  

A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.[1] A different variant exists in pig populations.   

Controversy arose in October 2005, after the H1N1 genome was published in the journal Science. Many[who?] fear that this information could be used for bioterrorism. [citation needed]  

 "When he compared the 1918 virus with today's human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus's 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person."[2]   

Low pathogenic H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, causing roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[3]   

Since mid-March 2009, over 500 cases, including at least 68 deaths, have been reported in Mexico from an outbreak a new strain of H1N1.[4][5][6]   

At least some of these cases result from the same strain of H1N1 that was isolated in 9 US patients in California and Texas.[7]"  

General influenza mortality rate is 0.1%, that means this is 20 times more deadly (2.0%), that's really bad. If the virus mutates in the general population, the mortality rate will likely increase. (It can mutate to become less deadly, but nobody would notice, we can hope, but that's not a strategy to combat infectious diseases.) The 1918 influenza virus mortality rate was 2%-20%.)   

If one million people get the virus, 20,000 dead, at current rates.  

Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don't know with current information.

04-25-2009, 06:24 PM	#1
macms ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Mile High Posts: 996 Trading: (56)	Lets talk about the Swine flu... Copied this from another board. Interesting reading and requires some investigating (for me anyway) to understand the implications. Put on your tinfoil hat just in case. ---------------- In a discussion this morning with a cell biologist and medical doctor working at Johns Hopkins, my friend thought this 4-part flu combination is highly unusual and looks like it could be man-made. Especially because it has an avian strain. My doctor friend (he's Taiwanese) explained that in Asia, it's common for a avian-swine-human flu to happen naturally, but this virus first showed up in Mexico, where pigs and ducks are not usually raised together. Also, recombination of more than 2-different flu viruses is extremely rare. I'm just repeating what he said as an expert in the field. He says the CDC needs to explain if there is a possibility that we are under a bio-weapon attack. From CDC via Wikipedia:   Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe.    For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).[22][23][24] Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[25]    The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.[26]   Here's more from AP via Seattle Post Intelligencer: The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.   "We are very, very concerned," World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It's all hands on deck at the moment."   Update: doctor friend also says that what is also unusual is that this type/combination virus is the based on the same strain as in the 1918 Spanish flu virus (H1N1) outbreak (extremely deadly, 25 million dead in 25 weeks; total dead 50-100 million dead; 2.5%-5% of the world population). This makes the virus extremely deadly. The likelihood that this combination with the most deadly strain would happen naturally is very, very low.   From Reuters via Los Angeles Times:  http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...pr25,0,5114253 .story   The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.  Not really, the creators may be betting that this highly deadly strain further mutates. According to my Doctor source from JHU, it is not necessary to do it in the lab, when nature gets hold of it the virus evolves on its own, it can become very deadly. According to, the natural mutation rate of Influenza virus is 1.5 10^(-5) per nucleotide per infectious cycle (each individual replication within the cell). That means each of the millions of cells in one body that becomes infected will be mutated at a rate of 1.5 10^(-5) (10^(-5) = 1.5/10,000)    From the Journal of Virology:  http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/59/2/377  More from Reuters: (CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser) Besser said the CDC is being "very aggressive" said it was time for people in the United States to think about what to do if this does turn out to be a pandemic."  http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...53O0MW20090425  More info also from Wikipedia, but certified by my doctor (JHU) friend:    "H1N1 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus. H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds.   A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.[1] A different variant exists in pig populations.    Controversy arose in October 2005, after the H1N1 genome was published in the journal Science. Many[who?] fear that this information could be used for bioterrorism. [citation needed]    "When he compared the 1918 virus with today's human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus's 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person."[2]    Low pathogenic H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, causing roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[3]    Since mid-March 2009, over 500 cases, including at least 68 deaths, have been reported in Mexico from an outbreak a new strain of H1N1.[4][5][6]    At least some of these cases result from the same strain of H1N1 that was isolated in 9 US patients in California and Texas.[7]"   General influenza mortality rate is 0.1%, that means this is 20 times more deadly (2.0%), that's really bad. If the virus mutates in the general population, the mortality rate will likely increase. (It can mutate to become less deadly, but nobody would notice, we can hope, but that's not a strategy to combat infectious diseases.) The 1918 influenza virus mortality rate was 2%-20%.)    If one million people get the virus, 20,000 dead, at current rates.   Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don't know with current information. __________________