College Hoops Thread 2011-2012

[The Poet]

Maybe the frost's not on the Halloween pumpkin where you are, but here in Joisey it's been snowing like a SOB for a few hours, with almost an inch on the ground already. So, speaking of pumpkins, the preseason NCAA basketball polls are out, with many of the expected usual suspects cited. The minor differences between the AP (Writers') and ESPN/USA Today (Coaches') polls are simple displacements amongst the same 25 teams, and since both are totally meaningless aside from bragging rights and predicted (read "guesswork") expectations, I'll use the AP to begin my breakdown. This will likely take a few days, but with a solid week+ before they actually toss up the first orange, we have time.

So, without further ado, let's start the countdown to lift-off with:

# 1 - North Carolina = With their talent, depth, size, and experience, it's little wonder my Tar Heels are seen as an overwhelming favorite to begin the season. Some believe they will be the last team standing when Spring's sprung. Ehhh, ask me what I think in March, thank you. Some think they shall go undefeated. Yeah, right. We'll not likely ever see that happen again, what with the way the college game has changed. Some assume they'll not only win the ACC outright, but go unbeaten in a weakened league. Even if I didn't know Duke and Florida State might have different ideas, I'd know they every other conference team already has certain dates circled on their calendars, and they will be up for those games. And this is even without considering stuff like injuries or bad nights, or outstanding nights by an opponent. Bottom line, let's see how they play first before we crown them champs. Still, it's better to be thought good than to be known crappy.

# 2 - Kentucky = Unlike in his first two years in Lexington, Calipari has some experience left from his top-star recruits, which is a good thing for Wildcat fans. Like his first two, Cal has a ton of new talent coming into the program, which is a good thing and a bad one. One never knows how quickly freshmen will adapt, or how their reps will translate into production. Yet with 3 of the top 5 recruits, it is unlikely all of them will be busts, even to the point that it's more likely all 3 will excell. We will know more when they get a dozen games under their belts, but I expect them to be a tough challenge to anyone.

# 3 - Ohio State = The Buckeyes probably have the best big man in the nation, and he's not the only good player on this team. (Last year I was especially impressed with what I saw from that Craft-y guard) And I have no problem seeing them contending for a Final Four again, or even taking it all. But aside from an early test hosting Florida (11/15) and a match against Dook 11/29, their schedule won't tell us much about them until Big Ten, Thirteen, Twenty-Seven, whatever, play begins in earnest. And if Sullinger goes down for any appreciable period of time, the bottom might drop out of their season, quick.

# 4 - Connecticut = There is little doubt that the Huskies were under-rated last season. There is little doubt in my mind that they are over-rated this one. Sure, they'll have a good team, and will compete in what appears to be a disintegrating Big East. But without Kemba Walker's heroics in both the conference and national tournaments, UConn would have struggled to win the NIT last year. They will be without those heroics all this year, and have already had a few problems with injured and ineligable players, not to mention the NCAA looking at their 25% graduation rate with the stinkeye. I could be wrong, but keep your eye on them too.

# 5 - Syracuse = The Orange have a fair amount of talent, but most of their bigs are young, which can be a bit of a problem. Plus, their "star" hoopster Scoop sort of fell off the face late last year, so who knows which one will show up this season? And, typically for Boeheim's teams, we my need a while to see what they really have, since their pre-January schedule has more cupcakes than a kid's birthday party. Their zone will win them a good number of games, but I can't see it keeping them in the Top 5 unless their freshman catch fire.

# 6 - Duke = Here too I think the ranking is more a function of the program's and the coach's rep than the reality I see. True, they got the No. 1 recruit in the nation with Austin Rivers, who's supposed to be the real deal. Yet that remains to be seen. Seth Curry is quite good as an outside threat, but he's not his big brother. Andre Dawkins is pretty good too, though not a game-changer. The Plumlees have shown only flashes, and usually against donut teams, while even Coach K says they look ready to make a big step up this year. OK, maybe, but at best that's damning with faint praise. Also, don't forget they lost LAST year's super-frosh Irving, plus key veteran Nolan Smith, plus some other guy namer Singler or something like that. I do expect the Blue Devils to be a tough out (they almost always are), but I would be surprised if they were not, eventually, an out nonetheless.

That's about a quarter of the field, and enough for one day anyway. I'll probably be back Monday afternoon with the next handful of teams receiving early props, properly or not. Please post any comments, questions, complaints, boasts, or public service announcements you wish. I welcome all and sundry.