The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thread

Da Klugs · 08-04-2011, 02:40 PM

If you haven't.... just don't.

markem · 08-04-2011, 02:43 PM

You ain't kidding.

On the plus side, it may be a good time to up the periodic buying program.

OHMatt · 08-04-2011, 02:55 PM

thanks Dave! I have been doing my best not to type Fideli$@.c#$; eek started doing it again! Must...Uninstall...financial.....apps!

I'm guessing my 401k is now a 100.25.

Devanmc · 08-04-2011, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markem

You ain't kidding.

On the plus side, it may be a good time to up the periodic buying program.

im not expert but id hold off for it to stabilize, even on the extreme short term like tuesday.

Da Klugs · 08-04-2011, 09:47 PM

[FONT=Consolas]Good read below hope they are right. I felt better after reading it.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Dow Down 500, But Fundamentals Still Strong To view this article, Click Here <[/FONT][FONT=Consolas]http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2011/8/4/dow-down-500,-but-fundamentals-still-strong[/FONT][FONT=Consolas]> [/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist [/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Date: 8/4/2011[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Major stock market indices are down 4-5% today as investors move into panic mode. There is no single piece of news driving the sell-off; rather the market seems to be gathering downward momentum on its own. Selling is creating more selling.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Like 1987, the sell-off does not appear to be driven by fundamental factors. In fact, the fundamentals suggest the market is undervalued and getting more so as it drops. Many investors assume (or wonder) if the sell-off is indicating deep economic problems. However, there is no evidence that this is true. [/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]The Federal Reserve is still running a very accommodative monetary policy. Money supply data shows no contraction – M1 is up 13.8% and M2 is up 8.3% at an annual rate over the past thirteen weeks. The Fed is holding the funds rate near zero, while nominal GDP is rising near a 4% annual rate recently and “core” inflation is at 3%. In other words, interest rates are very low in comparison.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]If you are worried about a cut in government spending – don’t be. Federal spending in 2011 is still rising and according to the OMB and CBO it will rise each and every year over the next 10 years. If you are worried about the size of government and think the budget deal was terrible – you shouldn’t. Supertanker America is turning and government spending as a share of GDP is scheduled to fall by about 2% of GDP over the next 10 years.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Corporate earnings are rising rapidly. According to Bob Carey, First Trust’s Chief Investment Officer, with about 80 companies left to report, S&P 500 earnings are up 20% over last year and the S&P 500 P-E ratio (on forward earnings) is roughly 12. The market is cheap.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Economic data are not tanking. Initial claims are at 400,000 (down from 478,000 at the end of April). Car and truck sales were up 6.9% in July (over June) and chain-store retail sales were up 4.6% in July (from last year) versus 2.8% year-over-year growth in July 2010. Taken together, retail sales appear to have increased by about 0.7% in July even though gasoline prices fell.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]Yes, the ISM manufacturing index was just 50.9 in July, but that is the 24th consecutive month above 50 and is consistent with 2% or more real GDP growth. Finally, the ADP employment report showed 114,000 new private sector jobs in July, which was the 18th consecutive monthly gain. In other words, there is absolutely no evidence of a recession at this point.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]This leaves us at perhaps the best explanation for the decline: European debt problems, specifically Italy. It is clear that hot money is moving as investors worry about money market funds and bank solvency. The euro is falling, European bond yields are rising, US Treasury yields are plummeting and gold is up. Italy says that it does not face imminent default, but the market acts as if it may.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]European countries have spent themselves into a corner, but correcting this mistake will be good for long-term growth, not bad. While some financial institutions may take losses, government debt itself is water under the bridge. It’s a sunk cost. As a result, it has little effect on the economy unless losses create financial contagion. With mark-to-market accounting now fixed to allow cash flow to be used to value assets, the odds of contagion are minimized and the cost of immunizing America from contagion would be small when compared to 2008.[/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas]In the end, the sell-off looks as if it is more of a technical correction in the market, not a fundamental change in direction. This does not mean that it will end soon. Corrections run their course and then end. We wish we could trade each and every move in the market, but we can’t and we don’t know anyone who can. We are investors, and the market is more undervalued right now than it was when it opened for trading this morning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Consolas][/FONT]

STEVE S · 08-04-2011, 02:52 PM

don't look it is not for the weak of heart.

G G · 08-04-2011, 02:58 PM

I don't have any investments, hahahahah oops wait that aint a good thing is it?

cmitch · 08-04-2011, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ggainey

I don't have any investments, hahahahah oops wait that aint a good thing is it?

You're probably like me, your investments go up in smoke EVERY day.

Ashcan Bill · 08-04-2011, 03:13 PM

The markets have been a house of cards for the last year.

But I see buying opportunities coming.

Starscream · 08-04-2011, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ggainey

I don't have any investments, hahahahah oops wait that aint a good thing is it?

Other than a small 403b, I don't have any either, Greg.

Smokin Gator · 08-04-2011, 03:48 PM

Other than 401K stuff I got out of the market about six months ago. I wish you all the best!!!

Ashcan Bill · 08-04-2011, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Gator

Other than 401K stuff I got out of the market about six months ago. I wish you all the best!!!

I beat you by six months. When market gains are based primarily on the G'mut keeping interest rates artificially low, and by running the presses so Wall St. has lots of cheap money, I get a tad nervous.

Fordman4ever · 08-04-2011, 03:57 PM

I keep looking, thinking that it will get better.......it never does. I don't know why I even look anymore.

M1903A1 · 08-04-2011, 04:05 PM

What investments I do have, I pulled out of the market some time ago.

With the stock market numbers going up as the rest of the economic numbers have been heading in the other direction, I've been thinking for some time now that this market makes no sense.

Smokin Gator · 08-04-2011, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by M1903A1

With the stock market numbers going up as the rest of the economic numbers have been heading in the other direction, I've been thinking for some time now that this market makes no sense.

Xactly

pektel · 08-04-2011, 04:18 PM

I've only had an IRA for about a year. I'm just buying low right now. I think.
Posted via Mobile Device

Cigarcop · 08-04-2011, 04:26 PM

I figure in the end I'll owe them money!!

longknocker · 08-05-2011, 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cigarcop

I figure in the end I'll owe them money!!

No Problem, I'll Just Never Retire.

longknocker · 08-05-2011, 06:29 AM

Thanks For The Info, Dave; I Feel Better, Now!

Tio Gato · 08-04-2011, 04:35 PM

It's all up from here!

Happy birthday everyone!

08-04-2011, 02:40 PM	#1
Da Klugs Juan of 11 Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Dave Location: Right here Posts: 4,222 Trading: (8)	The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thread If you haven't.... just don't. __________________ Communities Not Commodities. Punctuation challenged, but trying. Proud winner of phase 1 of the Weight loss contest

08-04-2011, 02:43 PM	#2
markem Bunion Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Mark Location: Second Star on the Right Posts: 22,621 Trading: (47)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre You ain't kidding. On the plus side, it may be a good time to up the periodic buying program. __________________ I refuse to belong to any organization that would have me as a member. ~ Groucho Marx

08-04-2011, 02:55 PM	#3
OHMatt Klugs gave me Gurkas Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Matt Location: Springboro, OH Posts: 134 Trading: (2)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre thanks Dave! I have been doing my best not to type Fideli$@.c#$; eek started doing it again! Must...Uninstall...financial.....apps! I'm guessing my 401k is now a 100.25.

08-04-2011, 09:47 PM	#5
Da Klugs Juan of 11 Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Dave Location: Right here Posts: 4,222 Trading: (8)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre [FONT=Consolas]Good read below hope they are right. I felt better after reading it.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Dow Down 500, But Fundamentals Still Strong To view this article, Click Here <[/FONT][FONT=Consolas]http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2011/8/4/dow-down-500,-but-fundamentals-still-strong[/FONT][FONT=Consolas]> [/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist [/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Robert Stein, CFA - Senior Economist[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Date: 8/4/2011[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Major stock market indices are down 4-5% today as investors move into panic mode. There is no single piece of news driving the sell-off; rather the market seems to be gathering downward momentum on its own. Selling is creating more selling.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Like 1987, the sell-off does not appear to be driven by fundamental factors. In fact, the fundamentals suggest the market is undervalued and getting more so as it drops. Many investors assume (or wonder) if the sell-off is indicating deep economic problems. However, there is no evidence that this is true. [/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]The Federal Reserve is still running a very accommodative monetary policy. Money supply data shows no contraction – M1 is up 13.8% and M2 is up 8.3% at an annual rate over the past thirteen weeks. The Fed is holding the funds rate near zero, while nominal GDP is rising near a 4% annual rate recently and “core” inflation is at 3%. In other words, interest rates are very low in comparison.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]If you are worried about a cut in government spending – don’t be. Federal spending in 2011 is still rising and according to the OMB and CBO it will rise each and every year over the next 10 years. If you are worried about the size of government and think the budget deal was terrible – you shouldn’t. Supertanker America is turning and government spending as a share of GDP is scheduled to fall by about 2% of GDP over the next 10 years.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Corporate earnings are rising rapidly. According to Bob Carey, First Trust’s Chief Investment Officer, with about 80 companies left to report, S&P 500 earnings are up 20% over last year and the S&P 500 P-E ratio (on forward earnings) is roughly 12. The market is cheap.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Economic data are not tanking. Initial claims are at 400,000 (down from 478,000 at the end of April). Car and truck sales were up 6.9% in July (over June) and chain-store retail sales were up 4.6% in July (from last year) versus 2.8% year-over-year growth in July 2010. Taken together, retail sales appear to have increased by about 0.7% in July even though gasoline prices fell.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]Yes, the ISM manufacturing index was just 50.9 in July, but that is the 24th consecutive month above 50 and is consistent with 2% or more real GDP growth. Finally, the ADP employment report showed 114,000 new private sector jobs in July, which was the 18th consecutive monthly gain. In other words, there is absolutely no evidence of a recession at this point.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]This leaves us at perhaps the best explanation for the decline: European debt problems, specifically Italy. It is clear that hot money is moving as investors worry about money market funds and bank solvency. The euro is falling, European bond yields are rising, US Treasury yields are plummeting and gold is up. Italy says that it does not face imminent default, but the market acts as if it may.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]European countries have spent themselves into a corner, but correcting this mistake will be good for long-term growth, not bad. While some financial institutions may take losses, government debt itself is water under the bridge. It’s a sunk cost. As a result, it has little effect on the economy unless losses create financial contagion. With mark-to-market accounting now fixed to allow cash flow to be used to value assets, the odds of contagion are minimized and the cost of immunizing America from contagion would be small when compared to 2008.[/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] [FONT=Consolas]In the end, the sell-off looks as if it is more of a technical correction in the market, not a fundamental change in direction. This does not mean that it will end soon. Corrections run their course and then end. We wish we could trade each and every move in the market, but we can’t and we don’t know anyone who can. We are investors, and the market is more undervalued right now than it was when it opened for trading this morning. [/FONT] [FONT=Consolas][/FONT] __________________ Communities Not Commodities. Punctuation challenged, but trying. Proud winner of phase 1 of the Weight loss contest

08-04-2011, 02:52 PM	#6
STEVE S Have My Own Room Join Date: Jan 2010 First Name: Steve Location: Coconut Creek, Fl. Posts: 1,092 Trading: (1)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre don't look it is not for the weak of heart. __________________ Smoking cigars is a hobby and a great way to pass the time of day!

08-04-2011, 02:58 PM	#7
G G BR549 Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Greg Location: Taylor, FL. Posts: 12,725 Trading: (10)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre I don't have any investments, hahahahah oops wait that aint a good thing is it?

08-04-2011, 03:13 PM	#9
Ashcan Bill Ol' Dude Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Bill Location: Henderson, NV Posts: 1,900 Trading: (6)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre The markets have been a house of cards for the last year. But I see buying opportunities coming.

08-04-2011, 03:48 PM	#11
Smokin Gator Just plain insane! Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: The Swamp Posts: 6,237 Trading: (106)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre Other than 401K stuff I got out of the market about six months ago. I wish you all the best!!! __________________ Check out the Cigar Asylum Newbie Sampler Trade

08-04-2011, 03:57 PM	#13
Fordman4ever Redneck driving a ricer!! Join Date: Dec 2010 First Name: Earl Location: A place too cold to smoke outside Posts: 2,508 Trading: (26)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre I keep looking, thinking that it will get better.......it never does. I don't know why I even look anymore.

08-04-2011, 04:05 PM	#14
M1903A1 Have My Own Room Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 1060 W. Addison Posts: 1,573 Trading: (4)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre What investments I do have, I pulled out of the market some time ago. With the stock market numbers going up as the rest of the economic numbers have been heading in the other direction, I've been thinking for some time now that this market makes no sense. __________________ "It's the cigars that bring us together, but it's the people that cause us to stay."

08-04-2011, 04:18 PM	#16
pektel I'm nuts for the place Join Date: Jul 2010 First Name: Peter Location: Grand Rapids, MN Posts: 4,320 Trading: (28)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre I've only had an IRA for about a year. I'm just buying low right now. I think. Posted via Mobile Device

08-04-2011, 04:26 PM	#17
Cigarcop Wishin I Was Fishin Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Pa, In a treestand Posts: 1,434 Trading: (40)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre I figure in the end I'll owe them money!!

08-05-2011, 06:29 AM	#19
longknocker Postwhore Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Greg Location: Mobile, Alabama Posts: 11,162 Trading: (82)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre Thanks For The Info, Dave; I Feel Better, Now!

08-04-2011, 04:35 PM	#20
Tio Gato Uncle Kitty Join Date: Oct 2008 First Name: Jeff Location: Casa Grande, AZ Posts: 2,075 Trading: (11)	Re: The I was dumb enough to look at my investments today support thre It's all up from here!Happy birthday everyone! __________________ "You stink like cigars Uncle Kitty!" Said my Boo age 3. "Kid, take care of your family and the hell with anyone else" My Grandpa Bubba.

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