Gosh, Dave, I can't believe you made that bet!!!
I just got home and saw this thread, and without even reading any of the posts, I have to say that Heath Ledger was gonna win, just cuz he kicked off in the middle of a "brilliant"(?) acting career.
I stopped watching the Oscars years ago, because it's just a big popularity contest for the most part (IMHO). Other than the technical awards, I don't think the awards have anything to do with actual merit of the actors or the movies themselves.
Just my

!
Hope you have lotsa ketchup and mustard - that looks like a BIG hat!!!!!
