SORTA. What nobody seems to be talking about is what happens AFTER. Economically speaking, we have to look at the rate over time, not a one month sample. All that money that has been pouring into dealers wasn't "free". We created "sales" in the last month, LOTS AND LOTS of sales... but no new WEALTH. If the net balance of wealth is the same, then all you've done is shift the timing around a bit. I can tell you I'll give you $10 a month or $120 a year, it's the same amount of sales over time. (and yes, that's ignoring interest, which most small businesses are not earning).
So where did most of the money come from?
** It was money that people had set aside for a future firearm purpose (now that the purchase has occurred, the future one will likely not happen)
** It was money that people set aside to buy a new TV, or something like that. They spent it on guns instead, but economically speaking, it's a net wash.
** It was money somebody did not have to spend, they racked up a CC bill which will have to be paid off later. ~~Which means they may sell that gear at a loss (not good for them, and cheap gear they're selling means gear someone else will buy cheap from them and thus NOT buy from a dealer, eliminating future sales).
~~ OR they tighten up the belt and don't make other household purchases in order to pay for the gun. (net wash)
In the meantime, dealers may have a giant pile of cash right now, but they know that sales in a few months are going to be almost nothing, as the CC bills come due and people realize they no longer have any money for these kinds of purchases. Furthermore, because the dealer can't get restocked well, they will miss out on sales from impulse buyers who can' find what they want, or regular buyers who choose to wait until next year to buy when what they want is available.
So in the meantime, dealers will have to run a very slim operation over the next 6 months, which will mean job losses from some. If Midway had 100 employees before this mess, they probably have 150 now... but in 3 months, that number might be down to only 75 unless they see the potential for sales to start recovering.
The one area of the economy which has a net increase, for now, is the manufacturing industry. Magpul is going to be cranking at full capacity for months, maybe the next year. So their year looks rosy. They'll probably hire the same number of folks that Midway has to fire. But what then? after two years, what are their pmag sales going to look like? everyone that wanted one, got one, or 10, or 50. The ones that got 50 are maybe looking at their stuff and saying "ehh, maybe I only needed 15 of these..." and then selling the extra 35. That cuts into magpul's sales.
Magpul will still come out ahead - there is all the first-time AR buyers that went out and got some, there's all the folks that used to have 5 mags, now they went out and purchased and extra 10, so now they have 15... on a normal day they would have been happy with 5... and they're not going to sell when they have less than 15, so that 10 mag sale did create a net gain in the industry. But overall, the gains will not be as dramatic as I think many people envision...
In a nutshell, this could only be counted as a significant stimulus if the dealers were restocked to normal next month, and sales continued at normal "July" levels. THEN everything from this last month of insanity would be a bonus. but as it stands, if you look back at the numbers a year from now, you'll find that the 12 or 18 month average holds fairly steady, with only a moderate increase in overall sales from the folks that decided they wanted to have 10-15 mags in stock instead of 5, or the first time buyers, but many of those purchases will be offset in the overall economy by a different product they DON'T purchase, a vacation not taken, a house project not built, etc.
Hopefully some of that rambling made sense.....